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Health & Fitness

Jobs, jobs, jobs!

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

As the economy muddles through the recovery process and back toward sustainable growth, there is one thing that everyone can agree on. Democrat or Republican, it does not much matter – the thing that the economy needs more than anything else is jobs. The jobs reports, and payroll data associated with them, have risen in stature from mere footnotes to the centerpiece of the financial conversation. This makes perfect sense – without jobs people will not have much discretionary income to spend, and since the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending this creates a serious problem.

Recently, a new wrinkle regarding the “quality” of the jobs has been added to the conversation. Jobs are jobs, but not all jobs are created equal, and this point was made again and again after the release of the last jobs report. Part-time work is in no way a bad thing, but the concern centered around the lack of full time jobs being created. Full time jobs tend to be more stable, and this stability usually encourages more spending and investing to happen from the employee and employer, respectively.

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This is not, however, the end of the story. The jobs data also can have a powerful effect on the financial markets, interest rates, and commodities – let’s run through a few below:

1) If the data is poor, will The Fed expand QE (or continue longer)?
2) If QE continues, what does that do to the strength of the dollar?
3) If the dollar falls what happens to the price of gold/oil/copper?
4) If the economy is weak, do bond yields stay weak, or do they rise because of extended QE?
5) What is the impact on stock prices if yields increase/decrease?

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I could go on all night, but the point is clear – the jobs data speaks volumes about the labor market, and the opportunities within. In addition to this, however, the ripple effects of the jobs data can impact things not usually associated with “jobs Friday”

Below are some links previewing the jobs data, and discussions on the broader impact this report might have on the markets, and by extension, your money.

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